Transparency
Our calls, graded
Timestamped materiality claims, settled outcomes, and Brier scores — published for accountability.
Scoreboard
How our materiality calls have resolved
Each row is a timestamped claim about whether an event would move story premium for holders. Settled rows are scored with Brier loss (lower is better).
Directional accuracy
67%
Settled calls where P≥50% matched outcome (9 graded)
Avg Brier score
0.228
Mean (p − y)² across settled calls · 0 = perfect
Open calls
3
Awaiting settlement · 12 total logged
Ledger
Every call, cited
Predictions are logged before outcomes are known. We state what we measured — not what to do.
| Ticker | Call | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | FY27 cRPO guide raise will be material for software-cluster holders. | Open | — |
| GOOGL | Search remedy will not force a material story-premium reset (<5pt). | Open | — |
| MSFT | Azure growth re-acceleration will lift growth-priced tranche ≥2pts if guide holds. | Open | — |
| TSLA | Q1 deliveries will miss whisper and compress story premium. | Deliveries −9% QoQ; story premium fell ~6pts in decomposition. | 0.10 |
| SMCI | Delayed 10-K filing will trigger a material story-premium unwind. | Filing delay + auditor turnover; story premium collapsed ~18pts. | 0.03 |
| AVGO | VMware synergy run-rate will not move story premium for diversified books. | Synergy ahead of plan but <1pt story drift — immaterial as tagged. | 0.42 |
| NVDA | FY26 revenue guide will raise the implied growth tranche vs consensus. | Guide above Street; growth-priced share of price rose ~4pts in model. | 0.08 |
| INTC | Foundry external revenue milestone is immaterial until 18A ships. | 8-K confirmed milestone; price unchanged — immaterial. | 0.50 |
| NVDA | Q4 revenue beat will be material to data-center story premium (≥3pt move). | Beat; DC revenue +93% YoY; shares +8% after-hours. | 0.05 |
| AMD | MI300 run-rate disclosure will re-rate growth tranche for AI-exposed books. | Mgmt quantified $2B+ MI300 line; growth tranche +3pts for AI-heavy portfolios. | 0.15 |
| META | Ad revenue re-acceleration makes this a material positive for holders ≥5% weight. | Revenue in-line; Reels monetization slower — immaterial for most books. | 0.53 |
| AAPL | Services mix will offset iPhone softness; call is immaterial to story premium. | Modest beat; story premium drifted +1pt — more material than tagged. | 0.18 |
Important
Measurements, not recommendations
This ledger records Swintenel's historical materiality assessments and how they resolved. Accuracy metrics describe model calibration only. They are not a forecast of future performance, a trading signal, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
Past scored calls do not guarantee future accuracy. Swintenel is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. See our Terms for full disclaimers.