Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
UNH: +18.0% over the past year. UnitedHealth Group is a health care company that offers a wide range of services, including insurance plans, pharmacy benefits, and health care delivery.
→ swintenel analyze UNH
Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plans
Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
UNH: +18.0% over the past year. UnitedHealth Group is a health care company that offers a wide range of services, including insurance plans, pharmacy benefits, and health care delivery.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 0% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Wed, Jan 20, 2027 · in 78 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Wed, Jan 20, 2027 · in 78 days
Profit per share is down about 15% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 8.2% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Wed, Jan 20, 2027 · in 78 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on UNITEDHEALTH GROUP: UnitedHealth Group is a health care company that offers a wide range of services, including insurance plans, pharmacy benefits, and health care delivery. It sits in Medical - Healthcare Plans.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of UNITEDHEALTH GROUP changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Most recently, UNH reported strong earnings, with revenue delivered at $112.03B versus an estimate of $110.81B, and EPS significantly beating estimates at 6.38 compared to 4.94. This follows a period of substantial share price appreciation, with a 52-week change of +51.0%.
The market is currently focused on UNH's ability to sustain its growth and profitability.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the past year, UNH has seen its stock price increase by 51.0%, building on a thesis of consistent execution and market leadership. The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth of 11.8% year-over-year and strong EPS delivery, beating estimates in its latest report.
While profitability metrics like gross margin have seen some compression from prior years, the overall growth narrative remains intact, with fundamentals and growth contributing significantly to its performance.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
UNH has a history of navigating the complex healthcare landscape, marked by periods of significant growth and market expansion. The company has experienced three drawdowns of over 30% in the last 20 years, indicating its resilience through market cycles.
Its long-term strategy has focused on integrating health insurance with health services, creating a diversified and comprehensive offering that has allowed it to maintain a strong market position.
The UNH memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
UnitedHealth Group is a health care company that offers a wide range of services, including insurance plans, pharmacy benefits, and health care delivery. The company has shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 11.8% and earnings per share (EPS) expected to grow significantly next year. Currently, its valuation appears reasonable, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.54 and a price-to-sales (P/S)…
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~0%/yr revenue growth vs ~12%/yr history (growth deceleration priced in).
UncheckedBreaks if: Evidence arrives that directly contradicts: “Price implies ~0%/yr revenue growth vs ~12%/yr history (growth deceleration priced in).”
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Analyst price targets
Consensus $478.68 · median $500
Range $380 – $531 · +17.6% vs last
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 43 buy · 7 hold · 2 sell · 0 strong sell
52 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $448.33B · EPS $20.6
What analysts publish for the next annual period (18 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 56.1 · bar 2026-10-30
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q3: 24 acquire / 4 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $390.2 · 200-day avg $362.76
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC · Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated operates as a health care company in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Optum Health, Optum Insight, Optum Rx; and UnitedHealthcare. The Optum Health segment provides care delivery, care management, wellness and consumer engagement, and health financial services with patients, consumers, care delivery systems, providers, employers, payers, and public-sector entities. The Optum Insight segment offers software and information products, advisory consulting arrangements, and managed services outsourcing contracts to hospital systems, physicians, health plans, public entities, life sciences companies and other organizations. The Optum Rx segment provides pharmacy care services and programs, including retail network contracting, home delivery, specialty and community health pharmacy services, infusion, and purchasing and clinical capabilities, as well as develops programs in the areas of step therapy, formulary management, drug adherence, and disease and drug therapy management. The UnitedHealthcare segment offers consumer-oriented health benefit plans and services for national employers, public sector employers, mid-
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.