Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
TSM: +33.9% over the past year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). recent revenue $1.59T. gross margin about 51.6%.
→ swintenel analyze TSM
Technology · Semiconductors
Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
TSM: +33.9% over the past year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). recent revenue $1.59T. gross margin about 51.6%.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 0% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Thu, Jan 21, 2027 · in 79 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Thu, Jan 21, 2027 · in 79 days
Profit per share is up about 44% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 4.1% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Thu, Jan 21, 2027 · in 79 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on TSM: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). It sits in Semiconductors.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of TSM changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: "TSMC: Spending Its Lead To Keep It"; "TSMY: Hold As Capex Week Tests Capped Upside". Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof.
The next dated print on the calendar is 2027-01-21. The working memo line is: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). recent revenue $1.59T.
A price move alone does not confirm or break that line.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the cached window from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, the stock path is +33.9%. That move is the run-up (or drawdown) the current price contains — not a verdict.
Reported revenue growth in the fundamentals pack is 31.61% year over year. Separate what reported numbers have already shown from what is still promised.
Must-stay-true checks are in the memo below — not restated here.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The price history in this cache shows 0 drawdowns of 30% or more across about 1.1 years. That is a base rate, not a forecast.
The standing bear case on this page: Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 0% speculation premium priced in. The countercase: Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
The memo below is what must stay true for TSM, and what would prove it wrong.
The TSM memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM). recent revenue $1.59T. gross margin about 51.6%. On 2026-07-16; revenue delivered $39.36B vs est $39.83B (-1.2%); EPS 4.31 vs est 3.87 (+11.4%).
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~0%/yr revenue growth vs ~24%/yr history (growth deceleration priced in).
UncheckedBreaks if: Evidence arrives that directly contradicts the revenue or margin claim: “Price implies ~0%/yr revenue growth vs ~24%/yr history (growth deceleration priced in).”
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Must be true Cycle and AI demand still drive the narrative.
UncheckedBreaks if: Customer capex, purchase commitments, or demand language weaken enough to break this claim.
Where we look: 2027-01-21
Must be true Hyperscaler capex stays supportive for TSM (checked on MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META).
UncheckedBreaks if: TSM: two of MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META guide AI/cloud capex down in the same season.
Where we look: MSFT / AMZN / GOOGL / META next print · MSFT / AMZN / GOOGL / META earnings
Analyst price targets
Consensus $585.57 · median $560
Range $500 – $700 · +44.2% vs last
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 18 buy · 7 hold · 0 sell · 0 strong sell
25 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $5.49T · EPS $546.9
What analysts publish for the next annual period (10 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 38.3 · bar 2026-10-30
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q4: 31 acquire / 0 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $434.92 · 200-day avg $400.16
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Assembled 2026-11-03 from the research digest, FMP street pack, and EDGAR cache.