→ swintenel analyze SOFI
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services
What changedReviewed; does not map to a registered falsifier. Bank of America Corp DE Makes New Investment in SoFi Technologies, Inc. $SOFI · as of this morning
Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
SOFI: 2 drawdowns of 30%+ in 6 years (2020–2026) vs. -23.5% over the past year. SOFI is priced as member growth and fee mix outrunning credit / funding costs — a rates- and credit-sensitive fintech claim, not an AI infrastructure claim.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 79% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Tue, Oct 27, 2026 · in 38 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Tue, Oct 27, 2026 · in 38 days
Profit per share is down about 9% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 9.2% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Tue, Oct 27, 2026 · in 38 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on SoFi Technologies: SOFI is priced as member growth and fee mix outrunning credit / funding costs — a rates- and credit-sensitive fintech claim, not an AI infrastructure claim. It sits in Financial - Credit Services.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of SoFi Technologies changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: Down 50% From 2026 Highs, Should You Buy Sofi Before July 29 Earnings? (2026-07-25); SoFi Technologies Q2 Preview: Product Expansions, Weak Consumer Macros And A Tough Growth Ask (2026-07-25); SoFi Technologies: Great Execution At A Discount (2026-07-25). Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the past year the working thesis in the memo has been: SOFI is priced as member growth and fee mix outrunning credit / funding costs — a rates- and credit-sensitive fintech claim, not an AI infrastructure claim. Separate what that claim has already shown in reported numbers from what is still an assumption about future demand, margins, or competition.
A large move should make you careful — the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The base-rate history that frames today's debate: 2 drawdowns of 30%+ in 6 years (2020–2026). The open question is whether the current price assumes that pattern has changed — or that this time is another drawdown cycle.
The SOFI memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
At least one check for SOFI is warming.
SOFI is priced as member growth and fee mix outrunning credit / funding costs — a rates- and credit-sensitive fintech claim, not an AI infrastructure claim.
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Member growth and fee revenue stay on the trajectory the multiple prices in.
WarmingBreaks if: Charge-offs or funding costs break the credit / NIM claim for two quarters.
Where we look: SOFI quarterly earnings · SOFI earnings — members, fee revenue
Must be true Credit quality and funding costs stay within the operating claim.
IntactBreaks if: Member or fee growth decelerates enough to break the growth-multiple claim.
Where we look: SOFI quarterly earnings · SOFI earnings — net interest margin, charge-offs
Analyst price targets
Consensus $21.58 · median $21.5
Range $16 – $29 · +27.2% vs last
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 10 buy · 13 hold · 4 sell · 0 strong sell
27 ratings · FMP label “Hold” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $4.88B · EPS $0.59
What analysts publish for the next annual period (14 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 43.8 · bar 2026-09-18
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q3: 28 acquire / 30 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $17.75 · 200-day avg $19.58
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
SoFi Technologies, Inc. · Financial Services · Credit Services
SoFi Technologies, Inc. provides various financial services in the United States, Latin America, Canada, and Hong Kong. The company operates through three segments: Lending, Technology Platform, and Financial Services. It offers lending and financial services and products that allows its members to borrow, save, spend, invest, and protect money; and personal loans, student loans, home loans, and related services. The company also operates Galileo, a technology platform that offers services to financial and non-financial institution; and Technisys, a cloud-native digital and core banking platform that provides software licenses and associated services, including implementation and maintenance. In addition, it provides SoFi Money offers checking and savings accounts, and cash management products; SoFi Invest, a mobile-first investment platform that offers access to trading and advisory solutions, such as investing and robo-advisory; and SoFI Crypto, a new digital asset trading platform. Further, the company offers SoFi Credit Card that provides cash back rewards on every purchase; Sofi Relay, a personal finance management product that allows to track all of their financial accounts c
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.