Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
LLY: +67.9% over the past year. Eli Lilly and Company develops and sells pharmaceutical products for conditions like diabetes, obesity, and cancer.
→ swintenel analyze LLY
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
LLY: +67.9% over the past year. Eli Lilly and Company develops and sells pharmaceutical products for conditions like diabetes, obesity, and cancer.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 77% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Wed, Feb 3, 2027 · in 92 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Wed, Feb 3, 2027 · in 92 days
Profit per share is up about 96% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 10.5% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Wed, Feb 3, 2027 · in 92 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on ELI LILLY: Eli Lilly and Company develops and sells pharmaceutical products for conditions like diabetes, obesity, and cancer. It sits in Drug Manufacturers - General.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of ELI LILLY changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: "Walmart Got Kicked Out of the $1 Trillion Club. Is the Dividend King Stock a No-Brainer Buy Before the End of May?"; "Eli Lilly acquires three vaccine developers for $3.8 billion".
Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof. The next dated print on the calendar is 2027-02-03.
The working memo line is: Eli Lilly and Company develops and sells pharmaceutical products for conditions like diabetes, obesity, and cancer. The company shows strong business performance with revenue growing by 44.7% and a net income margin of 31.7%, alongside a high Return on Equity of 77.78%.
A price move alone does not confirm or break that line.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the cached window from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, the stock path is +67.9%. That move is the run-up (or drawdown) the current price contains — not a verdict.
Reported revenue growth in the fundamentals pack is 44.70% year over year. Digest earnings note: $20.6B | Net Margin: 31.7%.
Separate what reported numbers have already shown from what is still promised. Must-stay-true checks are in the memo below — not restated here.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The price history in this cache shows 0 drawdowns of 30% or more across about 1.1 years. That is a base rate, not a forecast.
The standing bear case on this page: Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 77% speculation premium priced in. The countercase: Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
The memo below is what must stay true for LLY, and what would prove it wrong.
The LLY memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Eli Lilly and Company develops and sells pharmaceutical products for conditions like diabetes, obesity, and cancer. The company shows strong business performance with revenue growing by 44.7% and a net income margin of 31.7%, alongside a high Return on Equity of 77.78%. However, its valuation appears stretched, with a Price-to-Sales ratio of 14.63 and a Price-to-Book ratio of 33.95. The stock has a low beta of 0.52, …
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~56%/yr revenue growth vs ~23%/yr history (~33pp step-up).
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Must be true Pipeline milestones and reimbursement drive the story.
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Analyst price targets
Consensus $1,433.72 · median $1,435
Range $940 – $1,650 · +1.1% vs last
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 34 buy · 9 hold · 3 sell · 0 strong sell
46 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $90.38B · EPS $35.15
What analysts publish for the next annual period (11 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 77.9 · bar 2026-10-30
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q4: 4 acquire / 0 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $1,197.14 · 200-day avg $1,091.24
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
ELI LILLY & Co · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally. The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity. It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer. In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.