→ swintenel analyze JPM
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified
What changedReviewed; does not map to a registered falsifier. Anthropic Is Expected to Go Public in October. The Brokerages Get Paid Either Way. · as of this morning
Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
JPM: 3 drawdowns of 30%+ in 20 years (2006 2026) vs. +17.1% over the past year. Market still prices money-center banks as a rates-and-credit cycle: net interest income stays supported by deposit costs and loan yields, credit losses stay within the disclosed operating claim.
Execution meets expectations; the stock grinds higher on steady delivery.
Macro or sector headwinds overwhelm idiosyncratic strength; relative multiple fades.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Tue, Oct 13, 2026 · in 24 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Tue, Oct 13, 2026 · in 24 days
Profit per share is roughly flat versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 2.8% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Tue, Oct 13, 2026 · in 24 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on JPM: Market still prices money-center banks as a rates-and-credit cycle: net interest income stays supported by deposit costs and loan yields, credit losses stay within the disclosed operating claim, and capital return (dividend + buyback) stays funded by earnings — not a tech or hyperscaler claim. It sits in Banks - Diversified.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of JPM changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
The most recent earnings report on July 14, 2026, showed a significant beat on both revenue and EPS, with revenue up 13.1% and EPS up 35.8% compared to estimates. However, there are no other recent news items available to indicate immediate market shifts or controversies.
These recent events are built upon the performance and strategy of the past year.
Over the past year, the market narrative for JPM has centered on its performance as a rates-and-credit cycle play. The thesis suggests net interest income remains supported by deposit costs and loan yields, credit losses stay within disclosed limits, and capital returns are funded by earnings.
This period has seen a +17.1% price increase, with recent earnings reinforcing the strength of its revenue and EPS delivery.
And that past year's performance is shaped by its long-term history.
JPM's history is marked by 3 drawdowns of over 30% in the last 20 years, including significant drops in 2007-2009, 2020, and 2021-2022. The current debate revolves around whether the stock's recent performance and current valuation reflect a departure from this historical pattern or if it's simply a cyclical upswing within a larger cycle.
The core question remains: what must stay true for JPM, and what would prove the current narrative wrong?
Market still prices money-center banks as a rates-and-credit cycle: net interest income stays supported by deposit costs and loan yields, credit losses stay within the disclosed operating claim, and capital return (dividend + buyback) stays funded by earnings — not a tech or hyperscaler claim.
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Net interest margin / NII stays consistent with the rates-cycle operating claim (deposit costs do not spike into the claim).
UncheckedBreaks if: NIM / NII rolls in a way that breaks the rates-cycle claim for two consecutive quarters (deposit costs spike or loan yields compress without offset).
Where we look: ~Mid-Jul · JPM quarterly · continuous deposit-cost watch · JPM earnings — NIM, NII, deposit-cost commentary
Must be true Credit quality (net charge-offs / allowance commentary) stays within the disclosed credit claim.
UncheckedBreaks if: Net charge-offs or allowance builds break the disclosed credit claim for two consecutive quarters.
Where we look: JPM quarterly earnings — credit quality tables · JPM earnings — NCO, ACL, credit-quality language
Must be true Loan growth and fee businesses stay supportive enough that NII is not the only pillar of the earnings claim.
UncheckedBreaks if: Fee / markets revenue collapses in a way that leaves NII carrying an earnings claim the multiple no longer matches.
Where we look: JPM quarterly — CIB / markets / card · JPM earnings — loans, CIB / markets / card fee commentary
Must be true Capital ratios and the capital-return framework stay intact without a regulatory or CET1 hard stop.
UncheckedBreaks if: A capital-ratio or capital-return hard stop (CET1 / stress-test / disclosed buyback pause) ends the capital-return claim.
Where we look: Fed stress-test window · JPM capital plan / earnings · JPM earnings / Fed stress-test / capital plan disclosures
Must be true Funding mix stays deposit-heavy enough that wholesale-funding stress does not rewrite the NIM claim.
UncheckedBreaks if: Deposit outflow or wholesale-funding stress rewrites the funding-mix premise behind the NIM claim.
Where we look: Continuous · deposit prints · JPM liquidity disclosures · JPM earnings — deposit balances, funding mix, liquidity commentary
Analyst price targets
Consensus $373.64 · median $370
Range $305 – $420 · +6.9% vs last
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street grade mix
1 strong buy · 31 buy · 27 hold · 2 sell · 0 strong sell
61 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $207.49B · EPS $24.76
What analysts publish for the next annual period (10 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 44.4 · bar 2026-09-18
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q3: 0 acquire / 4 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $353.2 · 200-day avg $320.54
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Assembled 2026-09-19 from the research digest, FMP street pack, and EDGAR cache.