Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
JNJ: +44.5% over the past year. Johnson & Johnson develops and sells a variety of healthcare products across its Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
→ swintenel analyze JNJ
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
JNJ: +44.5% over the past year. Johnson & Johnson develops and sells a variety of healthcare products across its Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 0% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Wed, Jan 20, 2027 · in 78 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Wed, Jan 20, 2027 · in 78 days
Profit per share is up about 89% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 2.0% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Wed, Jan 20, 2027 · in 78 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on JOHNSON &: Johnson & Johnson develops and sells a variety of healthcare products across its Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. It sits in Drug Manufacturers - General.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of JOHNSON & changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
JNJ recently reported earnings that slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue at $25.31B versus an estimate of $25.06B and EPS at $2.9 versus $2.84. The company's latest annual revenue grew 6.0% year-over-year, and its gross margin stood at 72.8%.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the past year, JNJ's stock price has increased by 52.9%, driven by its strong earnings power, with 0% of its valuation attributed to speculation. This performance is supported by its recent 6.0% revenue growth and a robust 72.8% gross margin.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
Johnson & Johnson has a history of remarkable stability, experiencing only one drawdown of 30%+ in the past 20 years (2006-2026). This resilience has been a hallmark of its business, but the current market valuation raises questions about whether this stability is expected to continue.
The JNJ memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Johnson & Johnson develops and sells a variety of healthcare products across its Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. The company shows solid business quality, with latest annual revenue of $94.2 billion, a 6.0% year-over-year increase, and a net income of $26.8 billion, resulting in a healthy 28.5% net margin. Valuation appears reasonable, with a forward P/E ratio of 18.42 and a P/S ratio of 5.87. The stock has…
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~3%/yr revenue growth, in line with ~5%/yr history.
UncheckedBreaks if: Evidence arrives that directly contradicts: “Price implies ~3%/yr revenue growth, in line with ~5%/yr history.”
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
JOHNSON & JOHNSON · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field worldwide. It operates in two segments, Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment offers products for various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, immunology, neuroscience, pulmonary hypertension, infectious diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolism distributed through retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals for prescription use. The MedTech segment provides a portfolio of products used in the surgery, orthopedic, cardiovascular, and vision fields distributed through wholesalers, hospitals and retailers, and used in the professional fields by physicians, nurses, hospitals, eye care professionals and clinics. This segment also offers products and enabling technologies that support joint reconstruction, trauma, spine, sports related injuries, and others, as well as open, laparoscopic, and robotic surgical procedures; instrumentation, energy devices, stapling systems, wound closure, biosurgery products, and digital and robotic technologies; breast aesthetics and re
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.