Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
DE: +45.1% over the past year. DE is priced as growth outruns the multiple: Price implies ~29%/yr revenue growth vs ~1%/yr history (~28pp step-up).
→ swintenel analyze DE
Industrials · Agricultural - Machinery
Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
DE: +45.1% over the past year. DE is priced as growth outruns the multiple: Price implies ~29%/yr revenue growth vs ~1%/yr history (~28pp step-up).
Speculation momentum stays intact; guidance raises or product wins could extend the premium.
Growth slows or margins slip; the speculation premium deflates fast with little ROIC cushion.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Wed, Nov 25, 2026 · in 22 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Wed, Nov 25, 2026 · in 22 days
Profit per share is down about 28% versus a year ago.
Sales
Sales
Wed, Nov 25, 2026 · in 22 days
Headlines
DE Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Steady 2026 Outlook
Deere Lawsuit Puts Right To Repair Model And Aftermarket Profits Under Review
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on DEERE &: DE is priced as growth outruns the multiple: Price implies ~29%/yr revenue growth vs ~1%/yr history (~28pp step-up). It sits in Agricultural - Machinery.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of DEERE & changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: "DE Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Steady 2026 Outlook"; "Deere Lawsuit Puts Right To Repair Model And Aftermarket Profits Under Review". Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof.
The next dated print on the calendar is 2026-11-25. The working memo line is: DE is priced as growth outruns the multiple: Price implies ~29%/yr revenue growth vs ~1%/yr history (~28pp step-up).
A price move alone does not confirm or break that line.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the cached window from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, the stock path is +45.1%. That move is the run-up (or drawdown) the current price contains — not a verdict.
Reported revenue growth in the fundamentals pack is -11.70% year over year. Digest earnings note: $5.0B | Net Margin: 11.0%.
Separate what reported numbers have already shown from what is still promised. Must-stay-true checks are in the memo below — not restated here.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The price history in this cache shows 0 drawdowns of 30% or more across about 1.1 years. That is a base rate, not a forecast.
The standing bear case on this page: Growth slows or margins slip; the speculation premium deflates fast with little ROIC cushion. The countercase: Speculation momentum stays intact; guidance raises or product wins could extend the premium.
The memo below is what must stay true for DE, and what would prove it wrong.
The DE memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
DE is priced as growth outruns the multiple: Price implies ~29%/yr revenue growth vs ~1%/yr history (~28pp step-up).
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~29%/yr revenue growth vs ~1%/yr history (~28pp step-up).
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Must be true The growth narrative must hold against current fundamentals.
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
DEERE & CO · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides four-wheel-drive track and row crop tractors, harvesters, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers specialty, utility, and compact tractors; self-propelled forage harvesters and attachments; rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, and utility vehicles; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. The Construction and Forestry segment provides backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders,
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.