Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
COST: -6.0% over the past year. Costco operates membership warehouses selling a wide variety of discounted merchandise and services.
→ swintenel analyze COST
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
COST: -6.0% over the past year. Costco operates membership warehouses selling a wide variety of discounted merchandise and services.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 59% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · in 5 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · in 5 days
Profit per share is up about 10% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 2.8% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Thu, Sep 24, 2026 · in 5 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on COST: Costco operates membership warehouses selling a wide variety of discounted merchandise and services. It sits in Discount Stores.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of COST changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
In the most recent reporting period, Costco delivered revenue of $70.53B, beating estimates by 1.0%, but EPS came in at $4.93, missing estimates by 1.4%. This follows a pattern of revenue beats and slight EPS misses, indicating consistent operational execution but perhaps some pressure on profitability.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the past year, COST's stock has seen a modest +0.1% price change. This period has been characterized by steady, albeit slower, revenue growth of +8.2% year-over-year, with gross margins holding at 12.8%.
The market appears to be grappling with whether this consistent performance justifies the current valuation, especially as growth rates moderate.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
Costco's history is marked by resilience, with only 2 drawdowns of 30%+ in the last 20 years. This track record has built a strong base-rate argument for its stability.
However, the current debate centers on whether this historical stability can continue to support its valuation in a changing retail landscape.
The COST memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Costco operates membership warehouses selling a wide variety of discounted merchandise and services. The company shows solid business quality with revenue growing 8.2% year-over-year to $275.2 billion and a strong Return on Equity of 27.77%. However, its valuation appears high, with a Forward P/E ratio of 43.74 and a Price-to-Book ratio of 13.60. The stock has a beta of 0.99, indicating it moves with the overall mark…
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~33%/yr revenue growth vs ~9%/yr history (~24pp step-up).
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Must be true The growth narrative must hold against current fundamentals.
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Analyst price targets
Consensus $1,101.78 · median $1,100
Range $1,000 – $1,275 · +23.1% vs last
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 39 buy · 19 hold · 1 sell · 0 strong sell
59 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2027 · revenue $327.09B · EPS $22.67
What analysts publish for the next annual period (27 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 35.9 · bar 2026-09-18
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q2: 0 acquire / 2 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $936.54 · 200-day avg $960.42
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Assembled 2026-09-19 from the research digest, FMP street pack, and EDGAR cache.