Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
COIN: 1 drawdowns of 30%+ in 1.1 years vs. -43.4% over the past year. Coinbase Global, Inc. provides a platform for consumers, institutions, and developers to engage with crypto assets.
→ swintenel analyze COIN
Financial Services · Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges
Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
COIN: 1 drawdowns of 30%+ in 1.1 years vs. -43.4% over the past year. Coinbase Global, Inc. provides a platform for consumers, institutions, and developers to engage with crypto assets.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 74% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · in 40 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · in 40 days
Profit per share is down about 53% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 8.3% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Thu, Oct 29, 2026 · in 40 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on Coinbase Global: Coinbase Global, Inc. It sits in Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of Coinbase Global changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: "Coinbase to lay off 14% of staff as CEO Brian Armstrong restructures crypto exchange for AI efficiency"; "Coinbase Slashes Workforce For AI Pivot; Bullish Rallies On $4.2 Billion Buyout". Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof.
The next dated print on the calendar is 2026-10-29. The working memo line is: Coinbase Global, Inc. provides a platform for consumers, institutions, and developers to engage with crypto assets.
A price move alone does not confirm or break that line.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the cached window from 2025-09-18 to 2026-09-18, the stock path is -43.4%. That move is the run-up (or drawdown) the current price contains — not a verdict.
Reported revenue growth in the fundamentals pack is 9.40% year over year. Digest earnings note: $1.3B | Net Margin: 17.6%.
Separate what reported numbers have already shown from what is still promised. Must-stay-true checks are in the memo below — not restated here.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The price history in this cache shows 1 drawdown of 30% or more across about 1.1 years. That is a base rate, not a forecast.
The standing bear case on this page: Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 74% speculation premium priced in. The countercase: Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
The memo below is what must stay true for COIN, and what would prove it wrong.
The COIN memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Coinbase Global, Inc. provides a platform for consumers, institutions, and developers to engage with crypto assets. The company has shown revenue growth of 9.4% year-over-year, with a net income of $1.3 billion and a net margin of 17.6%. However, its valuation appears high, with a forward P/E ratio of 38.45 and a price-to-sales ratio of 7.56. The stock has a high beta of 3.38, indicating significant volatility and vu…
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~31%/yr revenue growth vs ~-2%/yr history (~33pp step-up).
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Must be true Credit quality and rate path shape sentiment.
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Analyst price targets
Consensus $204.76 · median $208
Range $95 – $330 · +5.4% vs last
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 21 buy · 14 hold · 3 sell · 0 strong sell
38 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $5.19B · EPS $-3.12
What analysts publish for the next annual period (16 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 58.2 · bar 2026-09-18
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q3: 15 acquire / 54 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $165.95 · 200-day avg $189.55
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Sep 19, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Coinbase Global, Inc. · Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Coinbase Global, Inc. operates platform for crypto assets in the United States and internationally. It provides the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; a brokerage platform with a pool of liquidity across the crypto marketplace for institutions; and a suite of products granting access to build onchain for developers. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Recent SEC submissions in the scan cache. Titles are as filed.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.