Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
AMZN: +7.8% over the past year. Amazon.com, Inc. sells products and services online and through physical stores, alongside its cloud computing business.
→ swintenel analyze AMZN
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Swintenel read
Speculation-heavy
AMZN: +7.8% over the past year. Amazon.com, Inc. sells products and services online and through physical stores, alongside its cloud computing business.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 95% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Thu, Feb 4, 2027 · in 93 days. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Thu, Feb 4, 2027 · in 93 days
Profit per share is up about 29% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 8.9% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Thu, Feb 4, 2027 · in 93 days
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on AMAZON COM: Amazon.com, Inc. It sits in Specialty Retail.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of AMAZON COM changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: "Walmart Got Kicked Out of the $1 Trillion Club. Is the Dividend King Stock a No-Brainer Buy Before the End of May?"; "This Is the Quantum Computing Stock I'd Buy Before Any Other Right Now".
Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof. The next dated print on the calendar is 2027-02-04.
The working memo line is: Amazon.com, Inc. sells products and services online and through physical stores, alongside its cloud computing business. A price move alone does not confirm or break that line.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the cached window from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, the stock path is +7.8%. That move is the run-up (or drawdown) the current price contains — not a verdict.
Reported revenue growth in the fundamentals pack is 12.40% year over year. Digest earnings note: $77.7B | Net Margin: 10.8%.
Separate what reported numbers have already shown from what is still promised. Must-stay-true checks are in the memo below — not restated here.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The price history in this cache shows 0 drawdowns of 30% or more across about 1.1 years. That is a base rate, not a forecast.
The standing bear case on this page: Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 95% speculation premium priced in. The countercase: Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
The memo below is what must stay true for AMZN, and what would prove it wrong.
The AMZN memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Amazon.com, Inc. sells products and services online and through physical stores, alongside its cloud computing business. The company shows strong revenue growth, increasing by 12.4% year-over-year to $716.9 billion, with a net income of $77.7 billion and a net margin of 10.8%. Currently, its stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.47 and a price-to-sales ratio of 3.56, suggesting it may be priced expe…
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~50%/yr revenue growth vs ~11%/yr history (~39pp step-up).
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Must be true The growth narrative must hold against current fundamentals.
UncheckedBreaks if: Delivered growth falls short of what the multiple already prices in.
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Analyst price targets
Consensus $328.48 · median $329
Range $250 – $390 · +36.7% vs last
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 85 buy · 9 hold · 1 sell · 0 strong sell
95 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $829.54B · EPS $12.86
What analysts publish for the next annual period (33 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 38.3 · bar 2026-10-30
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q3: 17 acquire / 45 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $254.28 · 200-day avg $243.4
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
AMAZON COM INC · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products, advertising, and subscriptions service through online and physical stores in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, fire tablets, fire TVs, echo, ring, blink, and eero; and develops and produces media content. In addition, the company offers programs that enable sellers to sell their products in its stores; and programs that allow authors, independent publishers, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, skill and app developers, and others to publish and sell content. Further, it provides compute, storage, Artificial intelligence, database, analytics, machine learning, and other services, as well as advertising services through programs, such as sponsored ads, display, and video advertising. Additionally, the company offers Amazon Prime, a membership program. The company's products offered through its stores include merchandise and content purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. It serves consumers, sellers, developers, ent
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.