Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
AMGN: +59.6% over the past year. Amgen Inc. develops and sells medicines to treat serious illnesses, with recent annual revenue of $36.8 billion, showing a 10.0% increase year-over-year.
→ swintenel analyze AMGN
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Swintenel read
Fundamentals-led
AMGN: +59.6% over the past year. Amgen Inc. develops and sells medicines to treat serious illnesses, with recent annual revenue of $36.8 billion, showing a 10.0% increase year-over-year.
Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 0% speculation premium priced in.
Price series and mix come from the ticker cache. Quote multiples and annual statements come from FMP when the key is configured. Headlines and earnings dates come from the scan cache. Missing fields stay as dashes — we do not invent a live tape or a buy/sell rating.
Price mix
We split the last price into three parts: what looks backed by earnings today, what already assumes growth, and what is still a bet. This describes the price. It is not a rating.
How much of today's price looks backed by what the company already earns. Not a guess about next year.
How much of the price already assumes growth that looks more like it is on the books, sitting on top of today's earnings.
What is left after those two. The market is paying for a future that still has to show up. That leftover can stay, shrink, or reverse. It is not a score or a buy signal.
Constructive and risk cases sit on Overview. What would break the thesis lives in Thesis check.
When they report
Two things: when you'd hear the next report, and whether profit per share has been going up.
Next report on file is Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · today. That's when you'd hear the latest numbers.
Last print
Next print
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · today
Profit per share is up about 88% versus a year ago.
Options in the cache imply about a 6.0% swing either way. Not a call on up or down.
Sales
Sales
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · today
Headlines
Operational memo
What has to stay true, and what would break it. A price drop alone does not count. Street counts stay in the rail; definitions are at the bottom of this page.
The memo bet on AMGEN: Amgen Inc. It sits in Drug Manufacturers - General.
Full description, quality metrics, and statements live under Depth. This tab is the economics the memo is betting on — and whether the latest facts still match that bet.
When the economics of AMGEN changed — or looked like they might — here is what that looks like now.
Recent headlines in the cache: "Amgen Drug Gets New Warnings in Japan After Patient Deaths"; "Amgen Inc. (AMGN): Navellier’s Long-Term Pick on Pipeline Strength and Sales Growth". Treat these as starting points to verify against filings and calls — not as settled proof.
The next dated print on the calendar is 2026-11-03. The working memo line is: Amgen Inc. develops and sells medicines to treat serious illnesses, with recent annual revenue of $36.8 billion, showing a 10.0% increase year-over-year.
A price move alone does not confirm or break that line.
To judge whether that matters, you need how the company got here.
Over the cached window from 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30, the stock path is +59.6%. That move is the run-up (or drawdown) the current price contains — not a verdict.
Reported revenue growth in the fundamentals pack is 10.00% year over year. Digest earnings note: $7.7B | Net Margin: 21.0%.
Separate what reported numbers have already shown from what is still promised. Must-stay-true checks are in the memo below — not restated here.
A large move should make you careful - the relevant history explains why people disagree.
The price history in this cache shows 0 drawdowns of 30% or more across about 1.1 years. That is a base rate, not a forecast.
The standing bear case on this page: Expectations reset lower — miss risk is elevated with 0% speculation premium priced in. The countercase: Growth beats expectations and the speculation premium holds — upside if narrative strengthens.
The memo below is what must stay true for AMGN, and what would prove it wrong.
The AMGN memo turns on what must stay true, and what would prove it wrong.
Amgen Inc. develops and sells medicines to treat serious illnesses, with recent annual revenue of $36.8 billion, showing a 10.0% increase year-over-year. The company is profitable, with a net income margin of 21.0% and strong returns on equity and assets. Amgen trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.83 and a price-to-sales ratio of 5.03, suggesting it may be moderately valued. The stock has a low beta of 0…
Below we track the key markers for this stock. If any of them break, that is a mechanical hit to the thesis. A stock drop alone does not count.
Must be true Price implies ~0%/yr revenue growth vs ~9%/yr history (growth deceleration priced in).
UncheckedBreaks if: Evidence arrives that directly contradicts: “Price implies ~0%/yr revenue growth vs ~9%/yr history (growth deceleration priced in).”
Where we look: Not scheduled yet — checkpoint lands when the engine drafts one.
Analyst price targets
Consensus $403.79 · median $410
Range $230 – $500 · -13.4% vs last
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street grade mix
0 strong buy · 22 buy · 16 hold · 3 sell · 0 strong sell
41 ratings · FMP label “Buy” — counts only, not a recommendation.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Street annual estimates
FY 2026 · revenue $39.00B · EPS $23.06
What analysts publish for the next annual period (20 EPS estimates) — not a Swintenel forecast.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
RSI
RSI(14) = 71.4 · bar 2026-10-30
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures recent price momentum on a 0–100 scale. Readings under 30 are often called 'oversold'; over 70 'overbought' — labels for the reading, not trade advice.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Insider Form 4 activity
Y2026 Q4: 0 acquire / 0 dispose transactions
Descriptive ownership activity from filings — not a buy/sell signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Average close
50-day avg $419.96 · 200-day avg $374.79
Simple moving averages of recent closes — context for where price sits, not a signal.
via FMP · as of Nov 3, 2026
Dossier
Cached research in tabs. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
AMGEN INC · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout. It also markets other products, including PROLIA, REPATHA, OTEZLA, ENBREL, EVENITY, XGEVA, TEPEZZA, BLINC
Reported quality from statements first. More filled dots means higher versus other names. Not a rating.
Ownership, short interest, and Form 4 stats. Named 13F holder tables are not on this FMP tier.
Digest compiled by Swintenel from SEC EDGAR filings and internal agent research. Not investment advice. Third-party data vendors are not affiliated with Swintenel.