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Swintenel
Portfolio checkup

In this checkup

What you ownWhat you're betting onWhat breaks itWhat to watchWhat's left to you

As of Aug 5, 2026 · 6 holdings

Your portfolio, in one line

You're a speculation-led book — mostly consumer, some financials — and, unusually, no single risk dominates it. The most any one event threatens is about 15% of your money.

The one thing worth knowing first

RIVN is only about 20% of your book but about a quarter of your speculation risk. A small line on your statement carrying an outsized share of what you're paying for in hope rather than earnings. When the next catalyst hits, most of your swing lands there.

What you own

You hold 6 line items across your book — mostly consumer, some financials.

Direct holdings: GME (25%), RIVN (20%), COIN (20%), SOFI (15%), TSLA (12%), PLTR (8%).

Speculation

71%

$17,719

Fundamentals

17%

$4,373

Growth

12%

$2,908

By holding

By holding
GME 25%
GME25%
RIVN20%
COIN20%
SOFI15%
TSLA12%
PLTR8%

By sector

By sector
Consumer Cyclical 57%
Consumer Cyclical57%
Financial Services35%
Technology8%

Holdings scan

What you're betting on

You're a speculation-led book — mostly consumer, some financials — and, unusually, no single risk dominates it. The most any one event threatens is about 15% of your money.

RIVN is only about 20% of your book but about a quarter of your speculation risk. A small line on your statement carrying an outsized share of what you're paying for in hope rather than earnings. When the next catalyst hits, most of your swing lands there.

Under the surface you have about 5.4 effective bets across 5 shared reasons. The largest sleeve is "Tech / Growth".

Grouped by what would actually hurt them, the largest threads are Tech / Growth (SOFI, COIN) (~35% of the book), Consumer cyclical (~25% of the book), Consumer cyclical (~20% of the book). Fewer bets than tickers, but a real spread.

Vs SPY (composition)

Your book concentrates roughly 15% in Rates and financing. A typical broad index spreads risk across many themes — we are not showing a precise SPY figure until reference stats publish nightly.

MeasureYour book
Top theme concentration15%
Speculation share71%

SPY comparison is qualitative until WP-6 reference stats land — no invented index percentages.

Add buy dates to see how this book has actually run vs SPY

Upload purchase dates and average cost on confirm — the same input unlocks the Where you stand section and performance vs the index.

See the bet table
The betDollarsShare
Tech / Growth (SOFI, COIN) · SOFI, COIN~$8,75035%
Consumer cyclical · GME~$6,25025%
Consumer cyclical · RIVN~$5,00020%
Consumer cyclical · TSLA~$3,00012%
Tech / Growth · PLTR~$2,0008%

A price-correlation tool may call some names diversifiers. Correlation measures how stocks move; your risk lives in why they would fall. Most of the book shares "Tech / Growth (SOFI, COIN)".

What breaks it

What would hurt more than one name at once runs through Grouped by sector — that's the thread tying the book together.

No single sentence touches more than $25,000

A bad day in one theme doesn't drag the whole book down. You're more spread out than your ticker list suggests.

Grouped by sector for now — no specific thesis-breaker on file yet for the shared thread.

On a bad day, pain won't hit every holding the same way or on the same clock — watch who moves first.

This book can swing hard — mostly because so much of the price is speculation, not because every day is calm.

A normal day moves your book about $473 either way. A rough stretch historically has meant around a 11% drawdown for a book with your factor tilt — not a crash, just a hard month. The whole thing swings about 1.3× as much as Nasdaq. About 71% of your book's price is speculation — the rest is earnings and expected growth.

So when the book swings, treat it as stress on a high-expectation book — not a surprise.

See armor, break-speed, and cycle depth
Holding groupArmor under the shared risk
Grouped by sector · 100% · RIVN, TSLA, GME, SOFI, COIN…unknown until theses written

Valuation / peak-earnings context

  • High-speculation names price in a lot of future earnings — if the cycle rolls, multiples compress before fundamentals catch up.
  • RIVN: ~100% of price is speculation at 20% weight.
  • SOFI: ~81% of price is speculation at 15% weight.
  • TSLA: ~87% of price is speculation at 12% weight.

Embedded tax context

  • Add purchase price + buy date to unlock long-term vs short-term lot framing.

What to watch

Upside here is only what the companies have actually said — no invented targets.

Guidance not yet on file for these holdings — company-stated forward lines will show here when we have them.

Nothing major on your calendar for the next two weeks — when dates land, they'll show here.

See full calendar

Recent checks

Nothing material triggered your checks recently.

Next tests

Nothing major on your calendar for 2 weeks

Where you stand

We don't have average cost or buy dates for this book yet.

Add cost basis to unlock

Add them on confirm/upload to see unrealized gain/loss per name and whether you're protecting a cyclical gain vs still entering.

What you don't own

The risk you have no offset for

See gap analysis
  • ~100% of the book shares one theme (Grouped by sector) — there's no separate sleeve offsetting that driver.
  • Regime gap: light on Defensives, real assets — no built-in ballast if growth/speculation de-rates.
  • Holdings skew growth/cyclical — nothing in staples, utilities, or bonds to absorb a risk-off month.

What's left to you

The checkup stops where advice would begin. What remains is yours to write into the memos and live with.

Write the memo for your largest positions. Pre-register what you will do if a name falls hard with no falsifier fired — and what you will do if one fires. Those contract verbs live in your memos until you decide otherwise.

Open a thesis memo →

No buy/sell language here. Chat can stress the book when you ask.

Ask the analyst

Portfolio analyst

consumer + financials · 57/35 · 71% speculation

From your scan

Your book moves 1.3× Nasdaq, short-USD.

In past nasdaq drawdown window episodes, books like yours fell ~10.1% over 3 months (base rate, not a forecast).

Ask about concentration, catalysts, speculation premium, or regime — no trade advice.

Descriptive context only — not investment advice. Swintenel never recommends trades.
Swintenel

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