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Portfolio checkup

In this checkup

What you ownWhat you're betting onWhat breaks itWhat to watchWhat's left to you

As of Aug 5, 2026 · 10 holdings

Your portfolio, in one line

You're a growth-tilted book — mostly large tech, some consumer, one energy name (XOM) — 2 funds (XLK, QQQ) — and, unusually, no single risk dominates it. The most any one event threatens is about 27% of your money.

The one thing worth knowing first

TSLA is only about 15% of your book but about a third of your speculation risk. A small line on your statement carrying an outsized share of what you're paying for in hope rather than earnings. When the next catalyst hits, most of your swing lands there.

What you own

You hold 10 line items across 2 accounts — mostly large tech, some consumer, one energy name (XOM), 2 funds (XLK, QQQ).

AAPL is split across accounts. No single brokerage screen shows the whole stake: about 18% direct weight across accounts sits in Taxable brokerage (~12%) and IRA (~6%).

Direct holdings: AAPL (19.2%), TSLA (14.9%), MSFT (12.8%), XOM (8.5%), NVDA (7.5%), PLTR (6.4%), SOFI (4.3%), GME (3.2%); fund lines QQQ, XLK.

Speculation

47%

$34,093

Fundamentals

22%

$16,417

Growth

31%

$22,763

By holding

By holding
AAPL 19%
AAPL19%+2% ETF
TSLA15%
MSFT13%+2% ETF
QQQ13%
XLK11%
XOM9%

ETF look-through adds hidden weight on AAPL, MSFT, NVDA — orange + badges show overlap above direct %.

By sector

By sector
Technology 56%
Technology56%+7% ETF
Consumer Cyclical18%
Financial Services17%
Energy9%

Holdings scan

See identity findings
  • You own more NVDA than you think. ~7.5% direct book weight on the broker lines; ~10.1% effective once fund holdings are unwrapped (~2.7% effective via ETFs).

What you're betting on

You're a growth-tilted book — mostly large tech, some consumer, one energy name (XOM) — 2 funds (XLK, QQQ) — and, unusually, no single risk dominates it. The most any one event threatens is about 27% of your money.

TSLA is only about 15% of your book but about a third of your speculation risk. A small line on your statement carrying an outsized share of what you're paying for in hope rather than earnings. When the next catalyst hits, most of your swing lands there.

Under the surface you have about 6.9 effective bets across 15 shared reasons. The largest sleeve is "Tech / Growth".

Grouped by what would actually hurt them, the largest threads are Tech / Growth (~24% of the book), Tech / Growth (MSFT, ORCL) (~17% of the book), Consumer cyclical (~17% of the book). A genuinely wide book — many independent reasons to move.

Vs SPY (composition)

Your book concentrates roughly 27% in Hyperscaler capex. A typical broad index spreads risk across many themes — we are not showing a precise SPY figure until reference stats publish nightly.

MeasureYour book
Top theme concentration27%
Speculation share47%

SPY comparison is qualitative until WP-6 reference stats land — no invented index percentages.

Performance vs SPY (where cost basis is on file)

Realized return vs SPY uses your uploaded buy dates and prices — descriptive only.

Names without basis still show composition comparison above.

See the bet table
The betDollarsShare
Tech / Growth · AAPL~$20k23.7%
Tech / Growth (MSFT, ORCL) · MSFT, ORCL~$15k17.3%
Consumer cyclical · TSLA~$14k17%
Tech / Growth · NVDA~$9,49211.3%
Energy · XOM~$7,9809.5%
Tech / Growth · PLTR~$5,9647.1%
Tech / Growth · SOFI~$4,0324.8%
Consumer cyclical · GME~$3,0243.6%
Tech / Communications (AMZN, GOOGL, GOOG) · AMZN, GOOGL, GOOG~$1,5121.8%
Tech / Growth (AVGO, AMD) · AVGO, AMD~$1,3441.6%
Tech / Growth (CRM, ADBE) · CRM, ADBE~$6720.8%
Tech / Communications · META~$5880.7%
Consumer defensive · COST~$2520.3%
CSCO · CSCO~$2520.3%
Tech / Growth · QCOM~$2520.3%

A price-correlation tool may call some names diversifiers. Correlation measures how stocks move; your risk lives in why they would fall. Most of the book shares "Tech / Growth".

What breaks it

What would hurt more than one name at once runs through Grouped by sector — that's the thread tying the book together.

No single sentence touches more than $84,000

A bad day in one theme doesn't drag the whole book down. You're more spread out than your ticker list suggests.

Grouped by sector for now — no specific thesis-breaker on file yet for the shared thread.

On a bad day, pain won't hit every holding the same way or on the same clock — watch who moves first.

This book can swing hard — mostly because so much of the price is speculation, not because every day is calm.

A normal day moves your book about $1k either way. A rough stretch historically has meant around a 9% drawdown for a book with your factor tilt — not a crash, just a hard month. The whole thing swings about 0.8× as much as Nasdaq. About 47% of your book's price is speculation — the rest is earnings and expected growth.

So a red day here is normal weather, not a reason to panic.

See armor, break-speed, and cycle depth
Holding groupArmor under the shared risk
Grouped by sector · 100% · NVDA, AAPL, PLTR, XLK, MSFT…unknown until theses written

Valuation / peak-earnings context

  • High-speculation names price in a lot of future earnings — if the cycle rolls, multiples compress before fundamentals catch up.
  • TSLA: ~87% of price is speculation at 14.9% weight.
  • SOFI: ~81% of price is speculation at 4.3% weight.

Embedded tax context

  • Long-term (≥1 yr): NVDA
  • Short-term: none
  • Descriptive holding-period split only — not tax advice.

What to watch

Upside here is only what the companies have actually said — no invented targets.

Guidance not yet on file for these holdings — company-stated forward lines will show here when we have them.

Nothing major on your calendar for the next two weeks — when dates land, they'll show here.

See full calendar

Recent checks

Nothing material triggered your checks recently.

Next tests

Nothing major on your calendar for 2 weeks

Where you stand

Book-wide unrealized P&L (where basis is on file): +$1,867 on ~$84,000 — descriptive, not advice.

See P&L by holding

Names up since purchase: NVDA +42.51% — ask whether you're protecting a cyclical gain.

No basis yet for: TSLA, SOFI, AAPL, PLTR, GME, XLK, MSFT, XOM, QQQ — add cost on confirm to complete the picture.

HoldingUnrealizedTerm
NVDA+42.51%long-term

What you don't own

The risk you have no offset for

See gap analysis
  • ~100% of the book shares one theme (Grouped by sector) — there's no separate sleeve offsetting that driver.
  • Regime gap: light on Defensives — no built-in ballast if growth/speculation de-rates.
  • Holdings skew growth/cyclical — nothing in staples, utilities, or bonds to absorb a risk-off month.

What's left to you

The checkup stops where advice would begin. What remains is yours to write into the memos and live with.

Write the memo for your largest positions. Pre-register what you will do if a name falls hard with no falsifier fired — and what you will do if one fires. Those contract verbs live in your memos until you decide otherwise.

Open a thesis memo →

No buy/sell language here. Chat can stress the book when you ask.

Ask the analyst

Portfolio analyst

growth-tilted · tech+consumer+energy · no shared thesis driver · 47% speculation

From your scan

Your book moves 0.8× Nasdaq, short-USD.

In past nasdaq drawdown window episodes, books like yours fell ~10.1% over 3 months (base rate, not a forecast).

Ask about concentration, catalysts, speculation premium, or regime — no trade advice.

Descriptive context only — not investment advice. Swintenel never recommends trades.
Swintenel

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